Iraq Election Results

Published on February 1, 2005 By Solitair In Politics

I'm surprised at the lack of post election analysis on this site. Yes, there are plenty of left v right taunts and insults being thrown but no real examination of the voting trends or turnouts. So I'll attempts to start a debate on these.

- Current estimates as of today put the turnout at about 8 million Iraqi's or 60% of the registered voter population.
There is no doubt in my mind that this represents a resounding success for democracy in the country. People have turned out in huge numbers to vote and express their desire to be part of a democratic country.

- Split down into the three ethnic populations however, the numbers reads very differently. Shia and Kurd population had in excess of 70% turnout (hence the 72% quoted by CNN for those who are interested), while turnout from the Sunni population is estimated at being below 20%. This says a number of things
a) Kurds and Shias have overwhelmingly supported the election and expressed their desire to be part of a democratic government. This should reduce any worry people have of Islamic states or a separate Kurdish state. While both are desires the people have expressed the will to compromise and form a unified government.

Sunni turnout is so low as to ensure that under the current situation they will be under-representated in government. This is a big dissapointment from the election, but not unexpected. Two factors contributed tothe low turn-out. These were a boycott by Sunni politicans and the continuing violence in these areas of Iraq. The US will need to take some positive actions to ensure that this population both receives its share of the power and is brought into the democratic future of Iraq. Without this group being intergrated into the political future, Iraqi democracy will fail.

- There have been positive calls from Shia and Kurd leaders for unity with the Sunnis in forming a government.
This is a very positive development and may help to heal some of the wounds being opened by the terrorists between the three major ethnic groups in iraq.

So what do people feel is the future given the voting trends, and how do peopel expect the administration to include the Sunnis given the very low turnout in their areas?

Paul.

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