Will American arrogance destroy it's economy and international relationships
This morning I noticed in the news papers that the EU has finally decided to start applying trade tarrifs against the US. 3 years after the deadline for action on a world trade organisation ruling against the US expired the EU has finally had enough of American arrogance and is acting. As of March $200M worth of trade tarriffs will be levied, rising by $40M a month for a year and then rising to the full $4B.
Why?
Well it all begain a few years ago when the US created tax breaks for exporters. These mean that American companies who export goods get tax breaks and hence can compete at an unfair advantage against other countries. Of course it's illegal for any other country to do this against the US, and the US is very good at villanising and victimising any country which has. But for some reason the US believes it's above such laws and as the world's only superpower can do what it likes. The EU took the case to the world trade organisation who ruled against the US and gave the EU permission to apply $4B of tariffs. The Eu however decided to wait and try diplomancy. 4 years later and the US still has failed to remove the tax breaks.
So what now?
Well it's the start of a trade war. By Christmas next year $4B dollars of extra taxes will be appllied to American goods. On top of that the EU is also expected to win another trade case on the steel tariffs. No good will remains and the EU is likely to immediately impose the $2.2B of tariffs. This time however they have carefully chosen American products from borderline states which Bush needs to win. Strike where it hurts most is the new philosophy.
The result?
Most economists agree that $6.2B dollars of trade tariffs will seriously hurt US exports to the EU. Many other countries are expected to follow suit with the international equilavent to class action suits occurring. The EU has opened the flood gates and smaller countries are clumping together and linking tariffs. A world wide tariff based on already won cases is likely to cost the US up to $30B in tariffs. The US cannot afford to go it alone. It's economy would likely crash.
So what can the US do?
Either the US needs to learn a bit of humility, accept it is wrong and cancel it's illegal trade subsidies and tariffs or try to fight it in a trade war against the entire planet. The damage it will do to both it's econoy and reputation would take decades to recover. Maybe a few countries would link to the US, but have you looked at world opinion lately? The US would go it alone and it would make the 1930's depression look like a minor blip.
So in conclusion I suggest all Americans start looking to their finances and consider how they will survive when America decides to have an economic war with the entire planet, because I see no signs of America's arrogance ever being replaced by humility and 'we're sorry'
Paul.